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COVER- The perfect storm: Family tragedy plays out in court | The Hook

 

Raelyn and Jarrett Balfour lost their child– and will be paying $135,000 in legal bills for her defense. A jury acquitted her of involuntary manslaughter January 25.
PHOTO BY JAY KUHLMANN

“Everyone in this courtroom agrees Raelyn Balfour killed Bryce Balfour,” said prosecutor Elizabeth Killeen when the three-day trial began January 23. “This little boy’s life did not have to end this way on a hospital gurney. That constitutes criminal negligence.”

And so began one of Charlottesville’s most painful trials– asking whether a mother who makes a fatal mistake has already paid the highest price– or should pay with her freedom.

The prosecution and defense agreed on one thing: the death of nine-month-old Bryce Balfour was not intentional. Where they disagreed was whether his mother, Raelyn Alene Balfour, 36, was guilty of criminal neglect resulting in involuntary manslaughter, which carries up to 10 years in prison.

Most facts of the case were not in dispute. On March 30, Balfour forgot to drop Bryce off at the babysitter’s on her way from her Ruckersville home into work at the Judge Advocate General’s School at UVA’s North Grounds. Then, after talking to the babysitter at 4pm, Balfour found Bryce still in the car at the JAG School. But by then it was too late.

***

This was not the first time opposing counsel met in a high-profile case in Charlottesville Circuit Court. Top gun Alexandria attorney John Zwerling and Assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney Elizabeth Killeen had faced off three years earlier in the trial of Andrew Alston. But those facts were markedly different. Alston had been a UVA student when, during an altercation on 14th Street in 2003, he plunged a knife into firefighter Walker Sisk 18 times before fleeing the scene.

The Alston case provoked outrage when the jury, unswayed by the prosecution’s portrayal of Alston as a repeat local assailant (two weeks after killing Sisk, Alston escaped charges of assaulting a girlfriend by having her recant her allegations), sentenced him to three years for manslaughter. [CORRECTION: Alston’s jury was never told about his alleged assault or his alleged cover-up that followed–editor.]

In that trial, Killeen was second chair for the prosecution. This time, she sat alone facing Zwerling, his associate, Chris Leibig, and Dana Slater across the room beside Balfour, visibly pregnant and often visibly upset.

The series of events leading up to baby Bryce’s death were interpreted by the prosecution as indicative of Balfour’s “gross negligence” and by the defense as her “tragic flaw”— an inability to say no to people who needed her help.

The night before the tragedy in the parking lot, Erika Conely, a friend whose husband was serving overseas in the military, had a sick dog and needed someone to look after her baby. Raelyn Balfour, or “Lyn” as friends call her, was the fourth person Conely called, and she came over around 9pm.

During the two hours Balfour babysat for Conely, she consumed one or two beers, she told Conely, who testified that Balfour later asked her not to mention the beer to the police.

“The babysitting is to show Balfour’s tendency to overextend herself,” said Killeen, who also raised her eyebrows at the fact that Balfour drank beer while babysitting.

Balfour didn’t get to sleep until 1am, and after being awakened by Bryce around 3am, she went back to bed. But essentially she began her day with just three hours of sleep. Killeen described the sleep deprivation as part of a “pattern.”

“This was not ‘I’m going to the movies’ or ‘I’m out playing cards,'” countered Zwerling. “This was a call from a neighbor, a woman whose husband was in Iraq.”

***

The 1998 requirement that automobiles sold in America be equipped with dual front seat airbags was accompanied by a startling rise in deaths and injuries to young children by the airbags themselves. And so American babies began migrating from the traditional spot in the passenger seat to less visible placement in the back.

Unfortunately, the move has had devastating consequences, according to Kids and Cars, a national advocacy group that tracks hot-car fatalities.

“There’s been a tenfold increase,” says Janette Fennell, Kids and Cars’ founder. Between 1990 and 1992, a total of 11 children died of hyperthermia after being left or trapped in cars. From 2004-2006, the number was 110.

In 2007, the number of deaths was 36, mostly in southern states and mostly between the months of April and October. But what of all the babies left in cars not hit by scorching sun– those under trees or in parking garages?

Experts the Hook consulted claim that happens, but they declined to guess how often. And the parent who puts in a full day of work and returns to his car to discover a traumatized, hungry– but still living– child strapped into a car seat has yet to call a press conference.

Not long before the fateful morning, the Balfours had purchased a new car seat for their growing nine-month-old. However, they weren’t satisfied that the new seat, located in the usual spot behind the passenger seat, was properly secured. So Bryce’s dad, Jarrett Balfour, brought out the old seat that morning, and placed the baby directly behind his mom, he testified.

“This was the only time an empty car seat didn’t mean there was no baby in the car,” Zwerling told the 12 men and women of the jury.

And there was another key change to the routine that morning. Normally, Jarrett Balfour drove himself to work at the National Ground Intelligence Center, or NGIC. But because his sister-in-law had had an accident and was using his car, the Balfours found themselves with just one car that week.

After dropping her husband off at NGIC, Raelyn Balfour headed down Route 29 to her job at the JAG School. On the way, engaged in a 29-minute phone call with a nephew who needed money, she drove past Forest Lakes South, the neighborhood where her babysitter lived.

“She had a family discussion, a serious, emotional discussion about money during rush hour,” said Killeen.

“The family was suffering from crisis,” said Zwerling. “Who do they call? Raelyn.” And her offer to lend money was out of concern, Zwerling added. “She’s not doing it out of callous disregard.”

Upon reaching the JAG School around 8:30am, where she worked as a transportation and travel coordinator for the Army’s lawyers, Balfour found herself immediately plunged into a work crisis involving a mix-up with airline tickets for the family of a fallen soldier.

Her supervisor, Major Kevin Anderson, testified that it was push time at the school. Two graduating classes were getting ready to leave, and Balfour was responsible for coordinating their household moves and travel.

“Ms. Balfour had a lot of responsibility,” said the Major. “Stressed out is the best way to describe it.”

Balfour had received top ratings in her job evaluations, but her boss also discussed time management with her. She’d accumulated a lot of comp time which she used to take the baby to doctor’s appointments, he said.

Like the Major, husband Jarrett Balfour– who flew in from his new job in Iraq– found himself called as a prosecution witness, even though his sympathy clearly lay with the defendant. “I came here,” he told the court, “to support my wife.”  

***

Babysitter Whitney Huff called Balfour at work at 9:42am to ask where Bryce was. Killeen argued that Balfour ignored the message until around 3pm. “She chose to focus on work,” said Killeen. “That’s unacceptable. That is gross negligence.”

And Killeen was incredulous that Balfour didn’t remember for seven-and-a-half hours that she hadn’t dropped off Bryce. Indeed, testimony indicated she didn’t remember at all, despite– as the prosecutor mentioned at least three times during the trial– the fact that Balfour had a picture of Bryce in her office.

According to the defense, Balfour didn’t discover she had a message on her personal cell phone until around 3pm when she saw that Huff had called. Testimony indicated that Balfour then left a message for Huff, but the two didn’t speak directly until 3:58pm.

“I’m calling to check on Bryce,” Huff said in court. “‘What do you mean?'” she said Balfour asked. “‘You’ve got him. Oh, my god.'”

As has been recounted consistently from the first day, what happened next was every parent’s nightmare. Balfour raced to the parking lot where coworkers and rescue workers found her screaming and performing CPR on her baby. In court, Balfour sobbed as the 911 tape played with her voice begging, “No, no, please. Oh, no, please. Oh, help me.”

Like some in the community, the prosecutor– despite the drama– pushed for punishment.

 “She put herself in a situation where she was able to forget her infant,” Killeen told the jurors. Even with the stress and tension at work, “You still have to take care of your children,” she said.

“Ms. Balfour doesn’t get a pass because she did this to her own child as opposed to someone else’s child,” continued Killeen, calling Balfour’s actions “gross, wanton, and culpable neglect.”

Zwerling offered another angle.

“She came to believe she’d dropped him off,” he said. “Bryce was in a place where he was safe, sound, and happy, so she didn’t have to worry. Not remembering is easy to understand when she believed he was at daycare.”

The high on March 30 was 66 degrees, but an expert testified that the inside of a car could soar to over 100 within an hour. Medical examiner Kevin Whaley performed the autopsy on Bryce, and said he died from hyperthermia, most likely in the first half of the day. The infant had marked dehydration, and his core temperature when he was taken to the hospital was 110 degrees.

***

This type of accident, though heartbreakingly tragic, is no longer rare: nearly 400 children have died the same way in the past decade. And as Kids and Cars’ Fennell points out, the mistake is more often made not by parents who abuse their kids, but by “people who adore their children, people who would lay down in front of a car to save their child’s life.”

Mark Warschauer is such a person. After coping with multiple rounds of in vitro fertilization, Warschauer and his wife, Keiko, had a son, Michael Kai “Mikey” Warschauer in October 2002. They documented his infancy on a website, sent updates to friends and family, took parenting classes. But all their devotion didn’t save Mikey’s life.

On August 8, 2003, when Mikey was 10 months old, Warshauer, a technology and education professor, headed to work at the University of California-Irvine. For several months, he describes on a website, he’d been dropping Mikey off at daycare “a couple of days” each week. On those days, the route he took was just one turn different from his standard commute.

Like Balfour, who’d been up late babysitting the night before Bryce died, Warshauer was also sleep-deprived the night before Mikey died. Keiko was in the process of weaning Mikey from breastfeeding, and as a result, Warshauer was the one to attend to Mikey when he awoke several times during the night. In addition, he had stayed up late the previous night helping Keiko, a political science professor, with a work project. 

“On that day, after a change in my morning routine,” he writes, “I lost my concentration and drove to work instead of daycare.” When he emerged from his office three hours later, he discovered paramedics already on the scene and Mikey on a stretcher.

Unlike Balfour, Warschauer was never charged: California prosecutors decided Mikey’s death was accidental.

Reached by email, Warschauer declined comment, describing the years he has spent making public service announcements, doing public speaking, and being interviewed for news stories as “extremely emotionally draining.” 

Part of the drain may be the public backlash.

Following stories about such instances, newspaper message boards fill with vitriolic posts from readers who seem eager to see the bereaved parent punished.

“I’d never forget my own child!” or “It’s simply not possible for a loving parent to forget her child,” insist such writers. While many call for lengthy prison terms for the offending parent, some go a step further, calling for the parent to suffer an identical death. 

But Fennell believes such critics need to step back.

“Given the right set of circumstances,” she says, “it could happen to anyone.”

She’s not the only one making that claim. David Diamond, a psychology professor at the University of South Florida and neuroscience researcher for the Veterans Administration, says the human brain does not perform well under stress.

“You can actually see the brain atrophy in response to stress,” says Diamond, who was in Charlottesville as a possible defense witness in Balfour’s case.

“I’ve seen people respond pretty callously, and I think it’s insensitive,” he says. “They’re not aware that the brain has a way of absolutely focusing on the moment when we get stressed.”

He says Balfour’s exhaustion, the stressful phone call from her nephew, and the unexpectedly invisible location of Bryce’s car seat behind the driver’s seat short-circuited her “prefrontal cortex”– where higher decisions are made– and activated the lower functioning basal ganglia, the part of the brain that enables drivers to get home on “autopilot” with little or no memory of the trip. 

Those things, coupled with the added stress as soon as she arrived at work, created “the perfect storm,” says Diamond, and enabled a doting mother to forget her beloved child.

***

Raelyn Balfour had never been in trouble before. An 18-year U.S. Army veteran, she served in Desert Storm and Bosnia, and was awarded a Bronze Star for serving in Iraq in 2004 and 2005. She’s now in the Army Reserves.

“This is a tragedy,” said Zwerling. “Each tragic character has a tragic flaw. Lyn had a tragic flaw,” epitomized, he said, by the tag at the bottom of her emails: “No is not an option. Tell me how hard I have to work to get a yes. The fighting men and women deserve no less.”

“She couldn’t say no,” Zwerling said. “She took on too much, and it ruined her life. Her desire to help was not callous disregard. It was driven by a motive to do good. Her desire to do good should not be turned into a crime.”

Throughout the emotional trial, the courtroom benches behind Balfour were filled with family members, friends, and coworkers like her supervisor, Kevin Anderson, who returned to court January 25 after he’d testified the day before.

Colonel Robert Korpanty is Balfour’s Army Reserve officer. He flew in from Illinois to be at the trial. “It shouldn’t have ever come to trial,” he said as the jury deliberated.

After just 90 minutes, the jury was back. One juror later told WINA radio that the first vote was 11-1, and even the holdout wasn’t holding out for guilt– just undecided.

When the jury’s “not guilty” verdict was read, the courtroom erupted in sobs and applause, the latter hastily reprimanded by Judge Edward Hogshire.

“Bittersweet,” is how Jarrett Balfour’s mother, Sari Balfour, described the verdict. “They’ve been through such an incredible amount of grief but have not been able to grieve. It’s such a relief to be able to grieve.”

Lyn Balfour made a brief statement outside the courthouse, thanking the community and vowing, through education, to make sure her son’s death was not in vain.

“She was of the mind it could never happen to her,” said Zwerling. “It wasn’t an intentional thing. All the other stuff she was doing was to help other people.”

He acknowledged the difficulty of defending a case with a dead baby where the mother is responsible. “She’s going to have guilt the rest of her life,” he said.

“We were very pleased the jury made a decision on behalf of the community,” said Killeen, standing outside amid a gaggle of reporters along with her boss, Commonwealth’s Attorney Dave Chapman. “This was a case that needed to go before a jury. This was a very difficult, very emotional case. It’s not usual to go on trial for a crime everyone knows is accidental.”

“Sometimes the community wins by an acquittal,” added Chapman.

“The jury saw the whole incident as a tragedy,” said juror Ezekiel Best. “The phone calls— we determined from the evidence that she was forgetful. We saw it as a series of unfortunate errors. We didn’t see it as being knowingly callous in putting Bryce in danger, so we voted to acquit.”

Best says the hardest part of the trial was when the state put up slides of a dead nine-month-old baby and hearing the tapes of Balfour calling 911 and making her initial statement to police. “That,” he says, “was gut wrenching.”

Best and another juror, who asked that his name not be used, said they had some doubts about whether the case should have come to trial.

“Several of us said leaving the jury room, ‘Why are we here?'” says Best. “‘Why are our tax dollars being wasted?'”

In an interview a day after the verdict, Balfour seems to agree. Originally charged with second degree murder and felony child neglect the day after Bryce was buried, she was released on $25,000 bond. Her mugshot appeared on news sites that transmitted her image all over the world.

“My husband and I are going through the darkest phase of our lives,” Balfour said, “and they treated me like a habitual offender.”

Balfour says her defense cost $135,000. Unlike some couples who divorce after such tragedies, the Balfours have decided to follow through on plans for another child. However, there will be a family separation because, to pay their bills, her husband has signed up for a two-year civilian commitment in Iraq.

“The only thing I’m truly angry with is the Commonwealth,” she says. “I do understand they were looking out for Bryce. They knew from day one there were two car seats, and my son was behind me. They knew I’d dropped my husband off at work and that was not a normal stop for me.”

***

For Balfour, who had put safety latches and outlet covers all over their house before the accident, the irony is that a device is available that sets off an alarm if a child is left in the car. Unfortunately, she didn’t know about it.

“I’ve always been very religious,” Balfour said. “I do believe in God. And I’ve wondered, why did this happen to Jarrett and me? We’re good parents.”

The support inside and outside the courtroom seemed to attest to that fact.

“People at the JAG School created my son’s funeral program, with input from us,” she said. “They put together a DVD slide show. That’s why I could get up in the morning, why I could go to work.

“The prosecution attempted to use that against me, and it didn’t work. I didn’t know how the trial would go, but I had the support. People came from Fort Bragg, Michigan, Norfolk, Washington. Some drove here every day.”

One life change Balfour has already made has been volunteering with Kids and Cars. She says she has peppered Central Virginia stores with flyers urging parents to prevent such accidents. And she says she’s planning to write letters and testify before Congress.

Appearing with her husband on the ABC program Good Morning America on Monday, January 28, she tearfully told a national television audience that she’ll be asking God for forgiveness until the day she dies.

“I have a plan,” she tells the Hook. “A few days after my son died, I woke up at three in the morning and had this idea. I’m originally from Michigan, and I have friends who work in the auto industry and on car parts. We have a sensor in cars now for airbags. If the weight is not enough, it automatically shuts off. Why can’t that sensor tell if an adult or child is in the seat, and an alarm go off?”

Such technology may already exist. Volvo recently announced that it will offer an optional monitor that indicates whether there’s a heartbeat inside a car. Initially marketed to nervous drivers fearing an intruder, the device also appears to answer Balfour’s dream.

“It’s hard not to feel responsible for other children who’ve died since Bryce,” she says.

***

Even before Bryce’s death, she and Jarrett planned to have a second child. Three weeks ago, she resigned her job at the JAG School, and her baby is due in April.

“One of the reasons I’m being a homemaker now,” Balfour said, “is because if I were at work and the phone rings from the babysitter, I’ll think it’s the worst. I will always think the worst now. I’d be on pins and needles at work.”

For Balfour, the horror lives on in so many ways.

“I was one of the parents who said, ‘How can you do that? It’s not possible.’ I have people who tell me they don’t get in their car without thinking about me,” she said.

“As [prosecutor] Killeen said, I won’t ever hear my son say ‘I love you,'” she said. “I won’t see him grow up. I won’t see him graduate— all because of my mistake.”

And how do you explain the death of your child when you were responsible? 

“People ask,'” she said, “‘how many children do you have?’ That explanation is going to be relived over and over the rest of my life.”

–with additional reporting by Laura Burns and Courteney Stuart


Bryce Balfour died in the parking lot of the Judge Advocate General’s School on UVA’s North Grounds. Some of his mother’s coworkers attended her trial to show support
PHOTO BY LISA PROVENCE


Assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney Elizabeth Killeen prosecuted the case last week. Her boss, Dave Chapman, said, “Sometimes the community wins by an acquittal.”
PHOTO BY HAWES SPENCER


Attorney John Zwerling defended other Charlottesville clients, including UVA stabber Andrew Alston and attorney Debbie Wyatt.
PHOTO BY LISA PROVENCE


Bryce Alan Balfour. June 18, 2006– March 30, 2007.


“It’s a relief,” Balfour says of the verdict, “but I can’t be happy because my son won’t be here, and because I’ll never see him again until I go to heaven.”
PHOTO BY JAY KUHLMANN

#

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Business Braces for Hurricane Irene @@@@@

Time to think about the unthinkable. What if a major hurricane passed near New York City, as multiple forecasting models now suggest that Hurricane Irene could?

Aside from the inevitable loss of life in the most densely populated part of the country, history suggests that the economic damage could be tens of billions of dollars depending on the severity of the storm and the proximity to the city. Improbable, but theoretically plausible, scenarios could lead the damage to the realm of the most expensive natural disasters of all time and possibly large enough to have a significant impact on the country’s gross domestic product.

Tropical cyclones in and around New York City and the northeastern United States are rare, but not unprecedented. Using a relatively conservative set of criteria, since 1900 I have identified 20 storms that landed north of the Mason-Dixon Line with tropical storm winds (at least 39 miles per hour) or higher, 12 of which were direct hits on either Long Island or New Jersey. (You can read more and see their diagrams here)

Friday, 8/26/11, 10:22 a.m. / ET: The city never sleeps – but it will stop for Irene.

WNBC News Coverage: NYC orders that all construction cease this weekend.

Meanwhile, AP reports:

Work on the World Trade Center construction site continues, but storm preparations are being made there too.

The New York and New Jersey Port Authority announced on Friday that it is securing all cranes and other construction equipment at the site.

It also secures debris and smaller items that could be blown out of the building at 1 World Trade Center.

Sandbags have been installed in areas prone to flooding.

Friday, 8/26/11, 10:15 am / ET: Will Irene close the NYSE?

Although parts of Lower Manhattan can be evacuated, the NYSE is ready open for the effects and planning as usual on Monday morning. With more on the contingency plans, CNBC’s Bob Pisani has all the details … and you can see him here.

Friday, 8/26/11 10:08 a.m. / ET: Bloomberg’s warning from NYC: Coastal residents should move out on Friday

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Hurricane Irene’s path: is the weather channel off course?

Erik Wemple

Media critic focusing on the ups and downs of the cable news industry

A Weather Channel press release describes the station’s mission in reporting Hurricane Irene:

For the Weather Channel Companies (TWCC), it is the company’s top priority to keep people prepared and safe in the event of severe weather events. That’s why the company is taking extensive television, online, mobile, radio and social media efforts to keep viewers and users informed of the progress of Hurricane Irene on the east coast, which affected up to 55 million people .

This is not just PR-Blather either. In a lunchtime interview, Bob Walker, executive vice president and general manager of network and content for the Weather Channel, said this to me before unsubscribing, “Be sure.”

However, some viewers out there are getting a variation on this news from Weather Channel coverage. “Afraid” could sum up the feeling, reflected in a selection of thoughts from Twitter this afternoon:

What are all these people talking about? Perhaps this passage from the Weather Channel website provides a clue:

Irene is a hurricane that poses an extraordinary threat that has never been seen in North Carolina as far as the mid-Atlantic in the northeast and New England [emphasis added]. This includes Norfolk, Washington, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Hartford, and Boston.

Talk about a categorical statement!


Is it all too much?

Local weatherman Bob Ryan may say. Ryan expresses his admiration for Weather Channel hurricane expert Bryan Norcross and calls his vision for Irene’s progress “quite apocalyptic”.

Weather watchers for the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang have expressed similar skepticism. Gang member Dan Stillman: “It won’t be unprecedented in either North Carolina or the Central Atlantic. And since New York City is unlikely to be worse than a lower to mid-range Category 1, it won’t be their Katrina – even though there is significant flooding and noxious winds both inland and especially towards the coast, both in the middle Atlantic as well as in the northeast. ”

These types of conversations are not beyond the confidence of the Weather Channel brain. Here’s why: this forecasting giant has a bunker of 200 scientists and meteorologists looking at all of the models. “It gives us a big advantage,” says content chief Walker. When asked about the people citing the Weather Channel hysterics, Walker replied, “I can’t speculate on what they’re reacting to.” But: “Our people here are very, very careful to ensure that our brand represents the best quality … by being open and clear.”

So what sets the tone of the Weather Channel’s Irene coverage? Here are some considerations as formulated by Walker:

1) Irene is huge and stretches for about 500 miles;

2) Irene is heading to parts of the country that “haven’t been hit by a Category 1 or 2 in decades, and in some cases even longer,” says Walker.

3) The atmospheric conditions that would otherwise bring Irene to sea “weren’t there,” says Walker.

Another point in the broadcaster’s coverage: “All of our editorial discussions begin with a full briefing from the meteorological team, and our tone is determined based on what experts and scientists say,” says Walker.

Whatever you think of the Weather Channel’s editorial leaning towards Irene, the winds, rains, and sandbags are good for business. On Wednesday, the station’s website received 63 million page views and 12 million unique visitors. yesterday 99 million page views and 16 million unique items.

With the crowd comes responsibility: if the weather channel turns out to have outsmarted Irene, the next week will be asking some tough questions for the station’s headquarters in Atlanta. And let’s not consider the possibility of it signing things.

Other resources for PostLocal Hurricane Irene:

Full Hurricane Irene coverage with tracker, maps and projections.

Live updates all day.

Photos of the areas already hit by Hurricane Irene.

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Hurricane Irene Hype: Exaggerated Media Coverage or Justified?

A Category 5 intensity debate revolves around a Category 1 storm: Has Irene been oversubscribed by the media or has the media cautiously sounded the alarm in the spirit of public safety?

First, let’s look at what the storm did and didn’t do:

It did:

Highway 12 along North Carolina’s Outer Banks is removed from Irene’s raging sea. (Al Roker via Twitter)

Yahoo Photo Gallery: The Consequences of Hurricane Irene


Doppler estimated the rainfall from Irene along the east coast. (National Weather Service)

* Make landing as a large hurricane; In fact, it was Category 1 along the North Carolina Outer Banks
* Produce overwhelming storm surges along the Delmarva and New Jersey coastlines
* Reach New England as a hurricane (it weakened to a tropical storm)
* Produce a devastating storm surge and flood in New York City
* Cause major wind damage in New York City

Viewpoints on the hype

Let’s take a look at various views on whether Irene was oversubscribed.

Overhyped

Before the storm, Erik Wemple of the Post took note of some remarkably dramatic statements from the Weather Channel (TWC). TWC warned on its website:

Irene is a hurricane that poses an extraordinary threat that has never been seen in North Carolina as far as the mid-Atlantic in the northeast and New England. This includes Norfolk, Washington, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Hartford, and Boston.

Wemple gathered responses to the Weather Channel’s message from WJLA meteorologist Bob Ryan and Dan Stillman of Capital Weather Gang:

Bryan Norcross, Weather Channel’s hurricane expert, expressed his admiration. [Bob] Ryan calls his vision for the course of Irene “quite apocalyptic”.

Weather watchers for the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang have expressed similar skepticism. Gang member Dan Stillman: “It won’t be unprecedented in either North Carolina or the Central Atlantic. And since New York City is unlikely to be worse than a lower to mid-range Category 1, it won’t be their Katrina – even though there is significant flooding and noxious winds both inland and especially towards the coast, both in the middle Atlantic as well as in the northeast. ”

Howard Kurtz of the Daily Beast wrote a scathing commentary on media hysterics:

… the tsunami of hype surrounding this story was relentless, a Category 5 achievement that was largely driven by ratings. …

The fact that New York, home to the country’s top news outlets, was right in the path of the storm clearly fed this steroids story. Does anyone seriously believe that the hurricane would have had the same range if it had impacted Ft, for example? Lauderdale?

Justified hype

In light of his sensational coverage by Erik Wemple, the Weather Channel defended itself:

Irene was one of the largest (in terms of size) hurricanes of all time, which, combined with its long and slow trail through the densely populated northeastern United States, threatened an extraordinarily large number of people from its effects. One of our main jobs is to keep people informed about severe weather and all possible threats. We did that with this storm and based all of our decisions on the facts given to us by our team of over 200 meterologists and scientists.

TWC (and NBC’s) Al Roker firmly believed the network was taking the right approach. He tweeted last night:

Since when has cover from a storm that killed and counted 16 people caused massive floods and millions of damage hype?

And on the Today Show this morning, Roker added:

Think about it: this is a minimal Category 1 storm. 23 people lost their lives. How many people would or could have died if this had been a stronger storm?

The New York Times backs up Roker’s case, providing data and analysis that suggest Irene ranks among the worst U.S. hurricanes since 1980 because of its economic cost and human life:

Estimates in an ABC News article put property damage between $ 7 billion and $ 13 billion – and the rule of thumb is that total economic losses are about twice as much as property losses, for a total price of between $ 14 billion and $ 26 billion would be a billion.

Using the lower end of that range – $ 14 billion in total losses – would rank Irene as the eighth most destructive storm since 1980, adjusted for inflation and the growth of wealth and population.

Irene’s 29 deaths (those numbers range from 23 to 29, depending on the source) would rank 5th among hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1980 (according to the NY Times), ahead of notable storms like Hurricanes Ike, Andrew and Isabel .

The consequences of overhype

In Forbes, Pat Michaels, Senior Fellow of the Cato Institute, wonders if Irene’s relatively anemic performance (in some places) will lead people to take future storms less seriously and have disastrous consequences:

… there is another tropical depression in the Atlantic and a few more on the way in the near future. For example, suppose one of them takes a similar route, except that it is unlikely to thread the mid-Atlantic needle and land immediately west of New York City as a Category 3 storm. How many people will Irene’s hyping have killed?

Michaels’ notion that false positives, even when “near misses” can backfire, are backed up by a recent Georgetown University study “Why Near Misses Can Reduce A Person’s Response To Hurricanes”, published in Risk Analysis. The study finds:

A near miss occurs when a good result is achieved, but only because of a coincidence. Although the random nature of near misses can be recognized, these good results can be considered more certain. People with near-miss information are more likely to choose a riskier option than people without near-miss information. This observation has important implications for risk communication.

Some final thoughts …

It is possible to strike a balance between over-hyping, over-warning and responsible risk communication. As I told the Philadelphia Inquirer in a story that ran today, the news media and weather forecasters can and should communicate the worst-case scenario in order for the public to be ready. However, you should also clearly and calmly explain the full range of possibilities, the limits of science, and the most likely options so that the public is fully informed. That’s what we’re aiming for at Capital Weather Gang.

Related: The 6 Criteria For Hype And Why Hurricane Irene’s Reporting Doesn’t Meet It (Poynter)

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Norfolk

South Carolina Gamecock Athletics: It’s Time for USC to Add New Varsity Sports – Part 1 (Updated)

Over at Dawg Sports, our friend T. Kyle King has recently argued that it is time for the University of Georgia to add men’s and women’s lacrosse as varsity sports – which are both club-level squads at Athens.

I think Kyle makes a compelling case for Athenian LAX, but his post also forced me to consider an idea that’s been rattling around in my head for a few months now – i.e., whether public universities which are (or soon will be) making huge profits from conference television deals should use some of those net proceeds to fund additional varsity sports. In other words, is there a moral obligation for leading universities like South Carolina to divert some of their football millions to fund additional, non-revenue sports?

I think the answer is definitively “yes” but the subject matter is big enough that it warrants being broken down into a two-part series. Thus, today in Part 1, we will examine some of the underlying facts that need to be taken into consideration in this discussion, and make the case for women’s gymnastics and women’s lacrosse to be added to the roll of USC varsity sports. In a future Part 2, we will consider men’s cross-country and men’s lacrosse, and debate some of the pros and cons for expanding the USC athletic department at this time – including how some of the arguments made by our hirsute canine friends in reply to Kyle’s post apply (or do not apply) to Carolina.

Salient Facts

By way of preface, here are a few facts I think are relevant to the conversation:

  • The University of South Carolina boasts one of the most profitable and most valuable football programs in the nation, and one of the top 20 most profitable athletic departments overall – with a 2011 reported net profit of $3,287,515 (though some have put the net profit as low as $762,726). A full database of South Carolina’s 2011 athletic department revenue has been compiled by ESPN.
  • The Southeastern Conference has one of the richest TV deals in college athletics – bringing in roughly $17.1 million per school last year. This distribution amount will certainly go only up when the league re-negotiates with CBS, and will likely reach stratospheric heights when the conference launches a true SEC network in 2014. Accordingly, the member institutions are on solid ground to expect SEC revenue distributions in the near future to surpass the Pac-12’s expected $30m-per-school payout. That’s a lot of cheddar that’s going to be filling our coffers soon.
  • Keep in mind that over the last five years, USC has spent (or committed to spend) a staggering $154 million on facilities (which goes in excess of $200m when deferred maintenance is calculated in) and which is no doubt artificially deflating our athletic department profitability- while simultaneously bringing our facilities into the top echelon of the league. What I’m trying to say here is that completion of the facilities upgrade will mean more discretionary revenue to our bottom line and we’ll have very attractive facilities in comparison with some of our rivals.
  • With the hiring of new men’s basketball coach Frank Martin, Athletic Director Eric Hyman now has all of the coaches of our most visible programs locked into long-term contracts, including Steve Spurrier, Ray Tanner and Dawn Staley – not to mention all of the other sports, including Mark Berson (men’s soccer), McGee Moody (swimming & diving), Curtis Frye (track & field), Beverly Smith (softball), Scott Swanson (volleyball), Shelly Smith (women’s soccer), Boo Major (equestrian) and Kalan Anderson-Harris (women’s golf) just to name some. The only USC coaching vacancy which still needs to be permanently filled is women’s tennis following the death of Arlo Elkins.
  • South Carolina fields eight varsity men’s teams: (1) Baseball; (2) Basketball: (3) Football; (4) Golf; (5) Soccer: (6) Swimming & Diving; (7) Tennis; and (8) Track & Field. The SEC sponsors all of these sports except men’s soccer (which only USC and UK play as members of Conference USA);
  • South Carolina is the only SEC school not to compete in men’s cross-country.
  • For women, South Carolina sponsors nine varsity squads: (1) Basketball; (2) Cross-Country; (3) Equestrian; (4) Golf; (5) Soccer; (6) Swimming & Diving; (7); Tennis; (8) Track & Field; and (9) Volleyball. The SEC sponsors all of these sports as well.
  • Half the SEC offers women’s gymnastics (Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU and Missouri). South Carolina is among the seven schools which do not.
  • Title IX compliance is a mind-numbingly complex area which is subject to different interpretations by different White House administrations. After thirty years, there is still a lot of controversy about this federal law. Neverthless – at least for the time-being – it appears that the SEC has adopted a league rule of offering at least two more women’s sports than men’s squads in order to be minimally compliant with Title IX. There’s no way of telling, however, how long this strategem will be legally viable – and, of course, USC is not even compliant with the “two more” rule presently.

Keep reading Part 1 after The Jump where we argue in favor of Women’s Gymnastics and Lacrosse

The case for Women’s Gymnastics

USC used to sponsor women’s gymnastics in the 1970s but it was dropped somewhere along the line – no doubt due to budget shortfalls in our pre-SEC days. Over on WordPress, a blog called Gamecock Gymnastics makes some really good arguments why women’s gymnastics should be re-established at USC:

  • College Gymnasts have a 99% graduation rate and gymnasts consistently rate among the highest GPA’s of ALL students.
  • In the 2008 – 2009 Academic year: 70% of all programs had a team GPA of 3.0 or higher, 23% had a team GPA of 3.4 or higher, and 428 female gymnasts earned Academic All – American with a 3.5 GPA or higher.
  • Proportionally, gymnasts have received the NCAA Women of the Year Award more times than any other a sport.

Would it be difficult to establish a women’s gymnastics program? Not really. The NCAA rules provide for twelve undivided scholarships in women’s gymnastics, which is one less than a basketball squad and easily within our capabilities. Gymnastics is a winter-spring sport, so in terms of venues we have the Colonial Life Arena [to the extent it is not being used for basketball on any given day], and the old Carolina Coliseum which is not currently being used for varsity USC athletics at all so far as I can tell – not to mention the Practice Facility which is the home of USC volleyball during the fall semester. Locker room and staff facilities could no doubt be squeezed in somewhere in any of these three facilities.

Is there interest? Certainly. The Gamecock Gymnastics folks further point out “that South Carolina Gymnastics has grown to over 1,600 competitive gymnasts hosted by 55 privately owned competitive clubs throughout the state, with NO collegiate gymnastics in South Carolina to support these athletes (emphasis in original).” Moreover, USC recently hosted an gymnastics invitational tournament in 2011 (check out some video highlights here) at the Columbia Convention Center on Lincoln Street – which shows there is already local fan interest. Right now, only UNC and NCSU offer major-college varsity gymnastics between College Park, Maryland and Athens, Georgia – meaning there is a huge regional recruiting area we can tap into. Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Kentucky already sponsor very strong squads and would no doubt welcome a new sister program into the league, and we could also compete against the regional schools in the East Coast Gymnastics League. With the 2012 Summer Olympic Games approaching, a whole new raft of girls are going to be enrolling in gymnastics programs this year.

How much would it cost? I won’t lie – it’s not exactly cheap. Georgia spent $1,792,805 on gymnastics and was $-668,164 in the red. North Carolina State, by way of another example, spent $1,133,209 on the Pack’s gymnastics program and was negative $686,411 when it was all said and done. If USC athletics were underwater overall, it wouldn’t make sense. But if the football money pours in like it’s projected, it’s a shortfall we could absorb – and we’d only further insulate ourselves from Title IX suits by adding another women’s sport. . Would we be competitive? Probably not right away. But is that of paramount concern right out of the gate, or are we willing to build a competitive program over the long-haul? South Carolina Athletic Director Eric Hyman has shown patience and fortitude in bringing in program-builders. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t do so with gymnastics.

Significantly, UGA recently nudged out its three-year head coach Jay Clark – who was a top Gym Dawgs assistant under the legendary Suzanne Yoculan from 1990-1996 and 1998 to 2009. While Clark could not duplicate Yoculan’s five consecutive national championships (10 overall), or sustain her enviable level of SEC success (16 conference titles), he was widely credited as a top recruiter and was well-liked in Athens. If we could land a talent like Clark while he’s free, we could build instant credibility and quickly assemble a competitive squad in Columbia.

Since the SEC already offers a championship in this sport, why shouldn’t Carolina get in on the action? I can’t think of a compelling reason why not, other than money or inertia – neither of which is a good enough reason. Gymnastics makes sense now. Let’s pull the trigger.

The case for Women’s Lacrosse

Back in 2007, USC announced that women’s lacrosse would be introduced by 2009 and that a coaching search would take place in ’07-’08. We even went so far as to apply for preliminary membership in the American Lacrosse Conference – along with the University of Florida – while we developed the new program. In November, 2008, however, the University announced:

The University of South Carolina’s plans to implement an intercollegiate lacrosse program have been temporarily delayed, pending acquisition of field space for this program. This site will be updated with information regarding the program as future plans become available. Please refer to this site periodically for updates

The temporary delay is now three-and-a-half years old (the half is important to the kids, guys), and there have been no further updates. At the time, Vanderbilt was the only SEC school to sponsor women’s LAX. Florida, on the other hand, went ahead and instituted its women’s program three years ago, and just made the 2012 NCAA’s.

To my mind, women’s LAX is just as big a no-brainer as gymnastics. First, the sport is exploding in the Palmetto State – as evidenced by this site and news reports like this. At least thirty three South Carolina high schools offer girl’s lacrosse – from the lowcountry, to the midlands, to the upstate. USC women have a lacrosse club that competes in the Southeastern Women’s Lacrosse League against regional rivals like Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Tennessee and Ole Miss to name a few. It’s only a matter of time before these rival universities (particularly rich schools like Bama, UT and UGA) transition to varsity girls’ lacrosse. We might as well be ahead of the curve rather than behind it.

In addition to the ALC and potential SEC foes, the Atlantic Coast Conference already has six schools sponsoring women’s lacrosse (Boston College, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia and Virginia Tech), while the Big East has nine women’s LAX squads (Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Loyola, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse and Villanova). Consequently, there’s going to plenty of nearby competition, and there’s no reason we should lag behind our old ACC chums in breaking new ground in this fast-growing sport.

While there may be a question of where to house women’s lacrosse, the most obvious location is the Graveyard (a.k.a. Stone Stadium). The Graveyard is the home of the Gamecock men’s and women’s soccer programs in the fall, but is not in use in the spring when women’s lacrosse takes place; there is already a women’s locker room which could be shared between women’s soccer and LAX until lacrosse-only locker rooms are added. With its 4,000 permanent seats in the west stands, and 1000 more on the east side, Stone Stadium is already an established venue which has been improved with a state of the art scoreboard in 2008 and a new drainage system in 2009. Unless I’m missing something, I can’t think of a reason why lacrosse couldn’t comfortably share the Graveyard with the soccer teams until another site is developed in the future.

Some will argue that a fledgling LAX program will be at a severe disadvantage against more established programs, or that our homegrown talent won’t be good enough to compete against their mid-Atlantic and northeastern compeers. I don”t buy it, however. The sport is growing and our region is growing – D-1 caliber athletes are either already out there or will come, In addition to our three big metro areas (Charleston-Mt. Pleasant, Columbia-Lexington and Greenville-Spartanburg) we’re close to both Charlotte and Atlanta where the sport is booming, not to mention that we’re relatively close by established LAX areas like Richmond, Norfolk, Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia.

Like gymnastics, LAX will come with a hefty price tag. By way of numbers comparison, Duke spends over $1.2m on women’s lacrosse while the University of Florida shelled out $1.4m for its team at last report. Whatever the financial cost, however, like gymnastics, the benefits of bringing more student-athletes to campus (not to mention additional Title IX compliance) is worth the cost. And if we can’t afford it just now, we’ll be able to very soon when the CBS and SEC-Network revenue arrives. LAX is here to stay. Let’s be in the van like we planned to be, rather than bringing up the rear.

***

Update: A commenter over at Gamecock Gymnastics posted this about the history of USC gymnastics which I had missed during the original write-up:

I am a former University of South Carolina Gymnast. I was a local gymnast from Tapio School (at that time named the Gyminee Crickets), who along with Julie Fisher from Charleston Family YMCA walked on to the team in 1977. Carolina had hired Bob White as head coach and graduate assistant Paula Northius from the University of Florida. Julie and I both earned scholarships for the next season. There were 13 of us and our sophomore year our team placed 3rd at the Regional Meet in Louisville, Kentucky. That was the highest place our Carolina had ever achieved. We were on our way!

With the then current administration of the Athletic Department it was an uphill battle. We competed from 1977 – 1980 when Pam Parsons and Jim Carlin disbanded our team over the summer of our Junior year at Carolina. This was done unbeknownst to any of the coaches, athletes or the South Carolina Gymnastics community.

With the University becoming a part of the SEC and gymnastics being a highly ranked sport in the South Eastern Conference I was hoping it was only a matter of time for gymnastics to become a talking point at the University again. There are still several members of that 1977 – 1981 Carolina Gymnastics Team who reside in this area. I retired from teaching in 1995 and have only been watching gymnastics from the sidelines. At this time I feel that South Carolina could field a team of great gymnasts just in our State alone. Would that not be a wonderful comeback for the University and gymnastics in South Carolina.

(Stay on the lookout for Part 2 of this Post where we will discuss new men’s sports and dissect pro- and con- arguments). You check check out Part 2 by following this link.

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Norfolk

The Navy blames three admirals for making a questionable trip to Britain

Amid a barrage of ethical scandals that annoy the military, a new violation comes: The Navy has reprimanded three admirals for making a questionable trip to Britain and failing the so-called “Washington Post Test”.

Unlike other cases of personal misconduct that US military leaders have prosecuted in recent years, this episode was hardly a major crime. The Admirals took an official seven-day trip to the UK in April 2012, which for some eyes was more about pleasure and less about business.

A whistleblower reported the trip to the marine inspector, claiming that the three commanders were long-time friends, that they had taken their wives and that it was “nothing more than a taxpayer-funded vacation to London, England for six close friends to celebrate. “At this point, two of the naval officers had just been selected for promotion to one-star admiral.

The anonymous whistleblower admitted that many aspects of the trip might be “technically legal” but asked Navy investigators if they would “pass the Washington Post test.” In other words, what if the Post found out about it – would it provide embarrassing material to post?

In June, after a year-long investigation that resulted in a 68-page report and an in-depth review of every penny spent, the Inspector General concluded that the admirals had failed. It turned out to be Rear Adms. Mark F. Heinrich, David R. Pimpo, and Donald L. Singleton, each of whom held important jobs in the Navy supply and logistics sectors, had broken federal travel regulations by staying at London hotels that numbered more than 400 USD per night and booked unnecessarily expensive flights.

The inspector general noted that there were legitimate business reasons for the trip, despite the fact that it was a close call.

[Read the inspector general’s report]

The British Royal Navy had issued a standing invitation to visit. On seven days, the US admirals visited the UK Department of Defense for two hours, spent half a day at the US embassy in London and visited several British Navy facilities. At the same time, they took their wives with them (though not at the taxpayer’s expense), arranged a leisurely visit to Bath, and did not do business over the weekend.

When asked by the Inspector General how the military had benefited from the trip, Pimpo was a little vague and stated that the purpose was to “talk to our colleagues about various topics we had worked on together.” Among other things, he exchanged information with the British on “how they train their cooks”.

The Inspector General noted a pattern of travel-related violations committed by Heinrich, who was commanding the Naval Supply Systems Command at the time.

The same day he returned to the US from London, he took another taxpayer-paid flight to visit his alma mater, the University of Kansas. There he was inducted into the Hall of Fame of the School’s Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department. He gave a speech, stayed the weekend and attended a soccer game.

The Inspector General concluded that the award was “personal” and had little to do with his work in the Navy. that he was spending $ 321 more on flights than he should have; and that he wrongly accepted a gift from the university, a laser-engraved chair valued at $ 338.

Over the next five weeks, Heinrich made additional business trips to Dallas, Philadelphia, Norfolk, Washington, and Richmond. In each case, the Navy found minor violations of regulations.

Heinrich retired as a two-star admiral on November 1st. In a telephone interview, he said he was not forced to retire and the Navy had not disciplined or punished him as a result of the investigation. He said the purposes of his travels were perfectly legitimate.

“With all the openness, it was never more than an administrative problem,” he said. “I think I served with honors and made the Navy proud.”

Singleton is now the Pacific Fleet’s assistant chief of staff for logistics. He did not respond to requests for comment made by a Navy spokesman.

Pimpo is now the commanding officer of the Defense Logistics Agency’s land and sea office in Columbus, Ohio. He did not respond to an email asking for comment or a request from a Navy spokeswoman.

Although the Inspector General’s report on the Admirals was kept confidential, the Post received it after filing an application under the Freedom of Information Act for all of the Inspector General’s investigations into admirals’ wrongdoing in the past year.

The Navy released the report Thursday, four months after the Post made the request.

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Norfolk

This map shows where the happiest and most unhappy people in the United States live

Illustration for article titled This Map shows where the happiest and most unhappy people in the US live

If all other things are equal, the south, parts of the west, and the upper Midwest are the happiest places in the United States, according to a recent study.

Researchers at Harvard University and the University of British Columbia used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which asked 300,000 people to report on life satisfaction each year between 2005 and 2009 while doing things like happiness in all regions Employment status and income are controlled.

As the map suggests, people may be willing to sacrifice happiness for job opportunities in urban areas (New York is the number one unhappiest metropolitan area) or for low home prices (Indiana and Kentucky). However, if you want to be with happy people, consider moving to Richmond, Norfolk, Washington, DC, or other areas with blue or green blotches on the map.

You can Read the PDF report here or the summary with the list of cities in the press release below.

Study shows the “most unhappy” cities in the US | UBC News about Vox

G / O Media can receive a commission

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Norfolk

Jersey Shore Fishing: Great canyon fishing

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Canyon fishing was exceptional at this time of year. Below is the report from Adam La Rosa of the Canyon Runner fleet at Point Pleasant – who is currently fishing from Cape May for a closer look at the best action:

240 yellow fins & 50 red fins 6 trips over 6 days
The only better thing is that our members of the Canyon Runner Fishing Report also restrict the limit-out
Last minute trip open next week



Last minute trip available within the next week

CLICK HERE TO VISIT THE NEW CANYON RUNNER TACKLE SALES WEBSITE
************************************ Now to the past reports ………….
In just 3 trips, Capt. Deane Lambros 160 yellow fins. In 3 consecutive trips for Capt. Phil Dulanie caught 130 yellow fins and red fins as well as a beautiful red reef at 70 inches. We have caught 50 red fins and 60 yellow fins in the past 24 hours. And since Tuesday last week we have caught a total of 290 tuna. It’s never been this good.

Folks – you just have to get out of there NOW!
To be clear – we only killed a small fraction of that number when we brought 60 back to the dock – including all of these excursions but one – we stopped fishing lessons before the trip was over as the charters were in progress were enough and wanted to go home EARLY

The catch numbers didn’t just end with our two Canyon Runner boats – our Canyon Runner fishing report members got to join the action themselves with multiple boats putting together multiple limits for yellow fin catches and a couple of big eyes! And some of them are out on the fishing grounds on Monday morning and have already put a couple of big eyes in the box – well done, folks!

Based on the last trip from Canyon Runner and back:
Voyage 1-60 Yellow Fins – Almost all over 30 “, most 30-40 pounds and several 40-50 pounds – Capt. Deane Lambros was on the Carl Bloomfield Charter between Wilmington and Baltimore Sunday through Monday (June 20th today) and had what He easily called the top 5 best trips of his life. They stopped fishing for yellow fins when they had 60 yellow fins on the first day – it only took a few hours. Better still, at least 35 of them were 30-50 pounds Only stopped about 15. The bars on the Canyon Runner Margarita Green Machines were hot but anything could have been caught and went hunting for the remainder of the trip to no avail.

Voyage 2 – 50 Bluefin on 175 pounds – Captain Phil Dulanie and Kevin Muller had the John Easterly Charter on the 60 ‘Ritchie Saturday-Sunday and stopped directly over the Bluefin in Hudson Canyon. They never put more than 4 rods in the water that afternoon, and even spent an hour with the Coast Guard doing a routine inspection (with flying colors, of course) without fishing a 70-inch fish that weighed about 175 pounds was found Caught a 3-ounce head by Joe Shute and a Ballyhoo. In the morning, Captain Kevin asked the charter to stay at 50 and they did – in just an hour they caught another 12. These reds are all beautiful fish – slightly larger than the yellow fin to the south – around 35-55 pounds. Canyon Runner Blue / Silver Mini-Mamba Bar was the best of it (a Capt. Phil favorite) but again they would have eaten it all.

Trip 3 – 40 Yellowfin – Capt. Deane was on the Charles Viebal Charter Wednesday through Thursday and although fishing was “slowing” in the Norfolk / Washington area, they still caught 40 yellowfin with 15 nice ones coming home.

Trip 4 – 10 Yellowfin – Saw the 60 Ritchie Howell Wednesday-Thursday with the Pete Torciello Charter on the group’s only slow trip, which only caught 10 Yellowfin in an overnighter with only 4 good ones. Crazy – it happens – but then we realize that the yellow fin may be moving north and what made us head to the Baltimore / Wilmington area yesterday.

Trip 5 – 70 Yellowfin for Capt. Phil
Normally I would write this down myself, but I figured we should let the words of the charter speak for themselves – here is Bob Smith’s contribution on the trip
His words don’t belong to us – 70 yellow fins, blue and white marlin, 5 species of sharks, mahi and even a whale shark visit
Bob wrote, “Had a banner ride on the 60 ‘Canyon Runner with some great friends! I moved away from Cape May to get into the water faster in the southern canyons and it was a game soon after we arrived. Erase the spread in some.” colder 67 degree water, but soon 4.5 or 6 at a time! Found the 5 degree temperature break and the 72 degree water had lots of 40-60lb yellow fins with us that actually had up to 8 poles hooked up at a time! We also ended up near a dozen large mahi, a small white marlin, and an estimated 450 pound blue marlin. We trudged through the dark hoping for a big eye, but it wasn’t on the cards for us. We stopped counting how many we had but had 5 species of sharks including hammerhead, brown, blue, dark and a 5 to 600 pound makos tiger shark, but the action was non-stop! Even a 35 ‘+ whale shark bumped into the boat and turned around. The morning troll p produced several multiple connections to yellow fins with 8 50-60lb’ers at once! We ended up with about 65-70 yellow fins, about 5-6 skipjack, one giant blue marlin, white marlin, about a dozen mahi, and at least a dozen different sharks! ”



Trip 6 – 60 Yellowfin for Capt. Deane – and he stopped fishing very early. This was the first trip in the string. Captain Deane stopped right where our friends from Ocean City destroyed the fish for a couple of weeks, and it was non-stop once the lines were in the water. The Clark Finney Charter had a trip of a lifetime for them and couldn’t believe the action.
Don’t forget to check out our Canyon Runner Tackle at www.canyonrunner.com. Everything we sell, everything we upgrade – and everything we caught that 290 tuna on since Tuesday is available directly online.

I got a place this weekend because someone forgot their children. Graduation – first come, first served – email adam@canyonrunner.com or call 732-272-4445 if interested.
So email me or call me ASAP if you want to get into this fishing – I haven’t seen it this well in a long time.

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Norfolk

Flight from Urban Cores Accelerates: 2016 Census Metropolitan Area Estimates

The flight from the nation’s major metropolitan area core counties increased 60 percent between 2015 and 2016, according to just-released estimates from the US Census Bureau (Note). A total of 321,000 more residents left the core counties than moved in, up from 199,000 in 2015. This is ten times the decade’s smallest domestic migration loss of 32,000 for the same counties which occurred in 2012.

Suburban counties continued to attract net domestic migrants, at a somewhat higher rate than in recent years and much higher than in the early part of the decade. The suburban counties gained 235,000 domestic migrants in 2016, compared to 224,000 in 2014 and more than double the low point of 113,000 in 2011 (Figure 1).

The 60 percent rise in net domestic migration out of the core counties converts to a 0.4 percent annual loss relative to last year’s population. This loss is more than one-half the annual growth rate of only 0.7 percent. This is a substantial deterioration from the net domestic migration loss in 2012 of 0. 04 percent, which was only 1/25th of the 1.1 percent growth rate for the core counties.

At the same time, the suburbs had their best performance of the decade. Their minimum advantage was in 2012, when the suburbs attracted 150,000 new domestic migrations relative to the core counties (118,000 compared to negative 32,000). The 2016 advantage was 556,000 (235,000 compared to negati ve 321,000).

The suburbs outperformed core county domestic migration in 40 of the 50 major metropolitan cases. The ten exceptions include three with strong urban cores (San Francisco, Boston and Washington) and seven with very small urban cores, indicating that much of the central county population is post-war suburban (see: Growth Concentrated in Most Suburbanized Core Cities).

Overall Domestic Migration

The deterioration in core county domestic migration led to overall negative domestic migration for the major metropolitan areas in 2016, the first time this has happened this decade. Overall, the 53 major metropolitan areas had a net domestic migration loss of 64,000, down from 17,000 in 2015 and 98,000 in 2012. Since the 2010 census, the major metropolitan areas have gained 222,000 net domestic migrants. This represents an overall net domestic migration rate of 0.13 percent relative to their 2010 population.

The big, and perhaps surprising, news here is that the “second tier” of metropolitan areas   (between 500,000 and 1 million population) have begun to perform better than their larger counterparts, a result reminiscent of the last decade. These 53 metropolitan areas gained 97,000 net domestic migrants, topping the major metropolitan areas for the third year in a row (Figure 2). Since the 2010 census, second tier metropolitan areas have gained 334,000 domestic migrants. This is 0.92 percent of the 2010 census population, seven times the major metropolitan area figure of 0.13 percent.

Where People Are Moving To and Away From

As has become customary, the greatest rates of domestic migration among the major metropolitan areas are overwhelmingly in the South. Austin is again number one, gaining nearly 1.7 percent from domestic migration. Austin is followed by Tampa St. Petersburg, Raleigh and Jacksonville. Las Vegas is the only non-southern major metropolitan area among the top five in net domestic migration. The second five includes four southern metropolitan areas, Charlotte, Orlando and Nashville, ranking sixth through eighth and San Antonio ranking tenth. Phoenix placed ninth.

The bottom 10 are a relatively familiar group of metropolitan areas, with San Jose placing last and being alone in having more than one percent (1.1 percent) of its population move away between 2015 and 2016. San Jose was also last in net domestic migration in the decade of the 2000s, if hurricane ravaged New Orleans is excluded. The bottom five also includes New York, Chicago, Hartford and Milwaukee. Los Angeles had the sixth worst net domestic migration, followed by Rochester, Virginia Beach-Norfolk, Washington and Buffalo (Figure 3).

The net domestic migration leaders among the large metropolitan areas posted even stronger gains than Austin. All of the top five had greater net domestic migration rates, and all are in Florida. Leader Cape Coral added more than 2.5 percent to its population from domestic migration. Nearby Sarasota was near 2.5 percent in Daytona Beach was also over two percent. Melbourne and Lakeland were approximately 1.9 percent. The second five was led by Charleston, South Carolina, followed by Boise, Fayetteville AR-MO, Spokane and Provo, UT.

The largest domestic migration loss was in Honolulu, at 1.1 percent and slightly worse than San Jose (minus 1.08 percent compared to 1.06 percent in San Jose). Two of New York’s commuter rail exurbs ranked second and fourth worst, Bridgeport-Stamford and New Haven, while Syracuse ranked third. El Paso had the fifth worst net domestic migration. The second five worst in net domestic migration were Springfield, Massachusetts, Youngstown, Bakersfield, Oxnard and McAllen, Texas (Figure 4).

Population Rankings and Trends

Again, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston were the largest. They were followed by Washington (which passed Philadelphia last year), Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta and Boston. There was no change in the rankings of the top 22 major metropolitan areas. Portland dropped two notches, from 23rd to 25th largest, as both Orlando and San Antonio jumped ahead. Austin jumped 2 positions, passing both Cleveland and Columbus, becoming the 31st largest metropolitan area. Finally, Raleigh passed Louisville to become the 43rd largest metropolitan area. The table at the end of the article includes information on the 106 largest metropolitan areas.

The population growth rates for both the major and second tier  metropolitan area leaders and trailers looks similar to the domestic migration rankings (Figures 5 and 6). Austin leads the majors and Cape Coral leads the large metropolitan areas. There are greater differences in the bottom ten, where some of the largest domestic migration losers (such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago) attract strong international migration have been replaced by others that attract fewer, and tend to have lower population growth rates as a result.

More Major Metropolitan Areas?

Meanwhile, some metropolitan areas should soon pass the 1,000,000 mark. Honolulu has been at the top of the list for some time. If the annual growth rates from 2010 to 2013, 2014 or 2015 had been sustained, Honolulu would have reached a million by 2016. But, Honolulu’ growth rate has slowed substantially in each of the last years since 2012, culminating in a modest population loss in 2016, leaving Honolulu 7,000 short of a million. Current growth rates suggest that Tulsa and Fresno could get to a million before Honolulu.

Reason For Concern

While the domestic migration data has long since disproven any thesis of a general movement of people from the suburbs to the urban core, the escalation in core county domestic migration losses is cause for concern.

The urban cores are far nicer places than they were before. But their recovery has been all too concentrated ; meanwhile the rings around trendy downtown residential areas continue, as before the micro-core renaissance, to suffer serious poverty levels and other social ills more intensely than elsewhere. We have been down a similar road before, and have never recovered from the serious costs.

Note: Major metropolitan areas have more than 1,000,000 population. The domestic migration comparison between core and suburban counties is limited to 50 of the 53 metropolitan areas, because four have only one county (Las Vegas, San Diego and Tucson). The lowest geographical level at which domestic migration data is available is counties. The core counties are often so large that they include large suburban components. This makes for a more crude comparison than would be the case if more precise data were available.

Metropolitan Areas Over 500,000:  Population Estimates: 2016
Population (Millions) 2015-2016
Rank Metropolitan Area 2010 2015 2016 Population Change Net Domestic Migration Rank: Domestic Migration
1 New York, NY-NJ-PA     19.566    20.118    20.154 0.18% -0.99% 103
2 Los Angeles, CA     12.829    13.269    13.310 0.31% -0.66% 95
3 Chicago, IL-IN-WI       9.462      9.533      9.513 -0.21% -0.94% 101
4 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX       6.426      7.090      7.233 2.02% 0.85% 25
5 Houston, TX       5.920      6.647      6.772 1.88% 0.42% 38
6 Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV       5.636      6.078      6.132 0.88% -0.51% 91
7 Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD       5.966      6.062      6.071 0.14% -0.43% 84
8 Miami, FL       5.566      6.002      6.066 1.08% -0.28% 72
9 Atlanta, GA       5.287      5.699      5.790 1.59% 0.64% 30
10 Boston, MA-NH       4.553      4.767      4.794 0.58% -0.35% 76
11 San Francisco, CA       4.336      4.642      4.679 0.80% -0.26% 69
12 Phoenix, AZ       4.193      4.568      4.662 2.05% 1.13% 20
13 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA       4.225      4.475      4.528 1.17% 0.34% 43
14 Detroit,  MI       4.296      4.298      4.298 0.00% -0.47% 86
15 Seattle, WA       3.440      3.727      3.799 1.93% 0.83% 26
16 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI       3.349      3.518      3.551 0.93% 0.01% 57
17 San Diego, CA       3.095      3.290      3.318 0.84% -0.25% 68
18 Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL       2.784      2.971      3.032 2.06% 1.57% 7
19 Denver, CO       2.544      2.809      2.853 1.58% 0.72% 28
20 St. Louis,, MO-IL       2.788      2.808      2.807 -0.05% -0.41% 83
21 Baltimore, MD       2.711      2.794      2.799 0.18% -0.40% 81
22 Charlotte, NC-SC       2.217      2.425      2.474 2.05% 1.31% 13
23 Orlando, FL       2.134        2.38      2.441 2.48% 1.24% 15
24 San Antonio, TX       2.143        2.38      2.430 2.01% 1.04% 21
25 Portland, OR-WA       2.226      2.385      2.425 1.68% 1.01% 22
26 Pittsburgh, PA       2.356      2.351      2.342 -0.38% -0.33% 73
27 Sacramento, CA       2.149      2.268      2.296 1.27% 0.54% 34
28 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN       2.115      2.155      2.165 0.45% -0.06% 61
29 Las Vegas, NV       1.951      2.109      2.156 2.20% 1.31% 12
30 Kansas City, MO-KS       2.009      2.084      2.105 0.96% 0.32% 44
31 Austin, TX       1.716      1.998      2.056 2.92% 1.67% 6
32 Cleveland, OH       2.077      2.060      2.056 -0.21% -0.49% 89
33 Columbus, OH       1.902      2.020      2.042 1.06% 0.22% 48
34 Indianapolis. IN       1.888      1.987      2.004 0.89% 0.13% 51
35 San Jose, CA       1.837      1.969      1.979 0.52% -1.06% 105
36 Nashville, TN       1.671      1.829      1.865 1.99% 1.14% 19
37 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC       1.677      1.723      1.727 0.20% -0.55% 92
38 Providence, RI-MA       1.601      1.613      1.615 0.13% -0.24% 66
39 Milwaukee,WI       1.556      1.574      1.572 -0.12% -0.72% 98
40 Jacksonville, FL       1.346      1.448      1.478 2.09% 1.36% 11
41 Oklahoma City, OK       1.253      1.357      1.373 1.20% 0.40% 39
42 Memphis, TN-MS-AR       1.325      1.342      1.343 0.07% -0.48% 88
43 Raleigh, NC       1.130      1.271      1.303 2.48% 1.46% 10
44 Louisville, KY-IN       1.236      1.278      1.283 0.46% -0.01% 58
45 Richmond, VA       1.208      1.270      1.282 0.89% 0.26% 46
46 New Orleans. LA       1.190      1.262      1.269 0.54% -0.07% 62
47 Hartford, CT       1.212      1.210      1.207 -0.26% -0.80% 100
48 Salt Lake City, UT       1.088      1.168      1.186 1.60% 0.32% 45
49 Birmingham, AL       1.128      1.145      1.147 0.22% -0.05% 60
50 Buffalo, NY       1.136      1.135      1.133 -0.24% -0.51% 90
51 Rochester, NY       1.080      1.081      1.079 -0.22% -0.64% 94
52 Grand Rapids, MI       0.989      1.038      1.047 0.84% 0.11% 53
53 Tucson, AZ       0.980      1.008      1.016 0.79% 0.25% 47
54 Honolulu, HI       0.953      0.993      0.993 -0.06% -1.08% 106
55 Tulsa, OK       0.938      0.980      0.987 0.69% 0.17% 50
56 Fresno, CA       0.930      0.972      0.980 0.80% -0.27% 71
57 Bridgeport-Stamford, CT       0.917      0.945      0.944 -0.05% -1.04% 104
58 Worcester, MA-CT       0.917      0.934      0.936 0.17% -0.39% 79
59 Omaha, NE-IA       0.865      0.914      0.924 1.08% 0.12% 52
60 Albuquerque, NM       0.887      0.905      0.910 0.52% 0.11% 54
61 Greenville, SC       0.824      0.873      0.885 1.34% 0.88% 24
62 Bakersfield, CA       0.840      0.879      0.885 0.60% -0.48% 87
63 Albany, NY       0.871      0.881      0.882 0.12% -0.25% 67
64 Knoxville, TN       0.838      0.861      0.869 0.86% 0.73% 27
65 New Haven CT       0.862      0.859      0.857 -0.26% -0.79% 99
66 McAllen, TX       0.775      0.839      0.850 1.25% -0.41% 82
67 Oxnard, CA       0.823      0.848      0.850 0.24% -0.44% 85
68 El Paso, TX       0.804      0.837      0.842 0.57% -0.69% 97
69 Allentown, PA-NJ       0.821      0.833      0.836 0.31% -0.08% 63
70 Baton Rouge, LA       0.803      0.830      0.835 0.65% 0.03% 56
71 Columbia, SC       0.767      0.810      0.817 0.95% 0.48% 36
72 Dayton, OH       0.799      0.800      0.801 0.11% -0.17% 65
73 Sarasota, FL       0.702      0.768      0.788 2.66% 2.46% 2
74 Charleston, SC       0.665      0.745      0.761 2.22% 1.54% 8
75 Greensboro, NC       0.724      0.752      0.756 0.58% 0.17% 49
76 Little Rock, AR       0.700      0.732      0.735 0.42% -0.10% 64
77 Stockton, CA       0.685      0.723      0.734 1.41% 0.57% 32
78 Cape Coral, FL       0.619      0.700      0.722 3.15% 2.54% 1
79 Colorado Springs, CO       0.646      0.698      0.712 2.11% 1.16% 18
80 Akron, OH       0.703      0.703      0.702 -0.16% -0.35% 75
81 Boise, ID       0.617      0.676      0.691 2.32% 1.47% 9
82 Lakeland, FL       0.602      0.649      0.666 2.58% 1.87% 5
83 Winston-Salem, NC       0.641      0.658      0.662 0.64% 0.45% 37
84 Syracuse, NY       0.663      0.660      0.657 -0.53% -0.99% 102
85 Ogden, UT       0.597      0.642      0.654 1.88% 0.69% 29
86 Madison, WI       0.605      0.641      0.649 1.30% 0.49% 35
87 Wichita, KS       0.631      0.643      0.645 0.26% -0.35% 74
88 Daytona Beach, FL       0.590      0.623      0.638 2.29% 2.24% 3
89 Des Moines, IA       0.570      0.623      0.635 1.95% 0.95% 23
90 Springfield, MA       0.622      0.630      0.630 0.02% -0.67% 96
91 Toledo, OH       0.610      0.606      0.605 -0.06% -0.37% 77
92 Provo, UT       0.527      0.585      0.603 3.07% 1.18% 17
93 Augusta, GA-SC       0.565      0.590      0.595 0.83% 0.35% 42
94 Jackson, MS       0.568      0.579      0.579 0.10% -0.37% 78
95 Melbourne, FL       0.543      0.568      0.579 1.97% 1.91% 4
96 Harrisburg, PA       0.549      0.565      0.568 0.52% -0.03% 59
97 Durham, NC       0.507      0.551      0.560 1.51% 0.55% 33
98 Spokane, WA       0.528      0.547      0.557 1.69% 1.23% 16
99 Scranton, PA       0.564      0.558      0.555 -0.45% -0.40% 80
100 Chattanooga, TN-GA       0.528      0.547      0.552 0.85% 0.64% 31
101 Youngstown, OH-PA       0.566      0.549      0.545 -0.85% -0.59% 93
102 Modesto, CA       0.514      0.535      0.542 1.15% 0.38% 40
103 Lancaster, PA       0.519      0.536      0.539 0.40% -0.26% 70
104 Portland, ME       0.514      0.527      0.530 0.54% 0.37% 41
105 Fayetteville, AR-MO       0.463      0.513      0.525 2.26% 1.28% 14
106 Santa Rosa, CA       0.484      0.501      0.503 0.32% 0.06% 55
From: US Census Bureau Data

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy and demographics firm. He is a Senior Fellow of the Center for Opportunity Urbanism (US), Senior Fellow for Housing Affordability and Municipal Policy for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy (Canada), and a member of the Board of Advisors of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University (California). He is co-author of the “Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey” and author of “Demographia World Urban Areas” and “War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life.” He was appointed to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission, where he served with the leading city and county leadership as the only non-elected member. He served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, a national university in Paris.

Photo: Coral Gables Florida (MSA), largest domestic migration and population gain of any metropolitan area over 500,000 population, 2015-2016 (by author)

Categories
Norfolk

Norfolk is the fourth most popular city for mobile millennials

NORFOLK, VA. – Virginia and Norfolk were among the poplar destinations for millennials in the United States, according to SmartAsset, which analyzed immigration and emigration data from the Census Bureau for 2015.

The New York-based financial technology company did this by comparing the number of millennials who have left an area to those who have moved into that area.

They also found that the mobility rate of young adults is the lowest in 50 years.

Norfolk ranked fourth among cities in the United States with 7,198 millennials moving to the city. Virginia ranked fifth among the states with 18,814 millennials moving to the Commonwealth.

Millennials make up the 20 to 34 age group and make up three percent of the Norfolk population. 38 percent of millennials who come to Virginia move to Norfolk, which, according to the report, results in the most millennials in the state moving to the city.

SmartAsset also described Virginia as a state where millennials are moving because of certain growing cities like Norfolk. Washington, Nevada, and Oregon were also states where millennials grew because certain cities were more likely to appeal to millennials than the state as a whole.

Norfolk wasn’t the only Virginia city to feature in top US cities with millennia of growth. Newport News and Richmond respectfully ranked 16th and 17th. Newport News saw its city grow by 3,215 millennials, while Richmond added 3,141 according to the 2015 US Census.