Ida’s second act as rainmaker inland could take twice as long as his hike across the Gulf of Mexico last weekend. On Monday afternoon, flash flood monitors spread northeast along and across the Appalachian Mountains, from the Ohio River to Cape Cod. The National Weather Service had flood monitors for Fredericksburg, Charlottesville, and Roanoke, but not for the Richmond Metro.
From Tuesday afternoon, flash flood clocks placed in front of the remains of Ida will be displayed in green.
NWS
On Tuesday, Ida’s rain vortex will continue to move northeast across the Tennessee Valley and into the southern and central Appalachians.
By Wednesday, Ida will merge with a cold front sloping south from the Great Lakes. The remaining lower center and core of heavy rain will sweep through West Virginia, then accelerate into the mid-Atlantic and northeast on Thursday.
Wednesday afternoon weather map showing Ida’s remaining low that Virginia and the Central Atlantic brings heavy rain as it merges into a frontal system.
NOAA WPC
Because of this low pass northwest of Richmond, we are on the warmer side of the circulation with scattered convection bands rather than the cooler side with a shield of constant, drenched rain.
Computer model simulation of Ida’s residual rain, which swirls from the Tennessee Valley into the mid-Atlantic between Tuesday and Wednesday night.
TROPICALTIDBITS.COM
So the sums in central Virginia could realistically range from at least a few tenths of an inch to a few inches in striped form. That means isolated flash floods, depending on where exactly the downpours are going and what their rainfall rates are.
Expected rainfall from the remains of Hurricane Ida between Tuesday morning and Thursday evening. In general, areas north and west of Richmond are more likely to see a few to maybe several inches, with fewer to the south and east. The heaviest rain overall is expected between northwest Virginia and central Pennsylvania.
NOAA WPC
Most of the rain in central Virginia would fall on Wednesday, but the showers could hit us as early as Tuesday afternoon or last until Thursday morning.