COVID-19 cases are rising in Prince William County and across the state this week, likely because of the more contagious Delta variant, which is “likely dominant in Virginia or will be soon,” according to the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.
Still, cases, hospitalizations and deaths among fully vaccinated people – known as “breakthrough” cases — are extremely low in Northern Virginia and across the state, according to new information shared by the Virginia Department of Health late last week.
Since May 1, Northern Virginia has had a total of 66 breakthrough cases, one breakthrough hospitalization and zero breakthrough deaths. Put another way, 98.2% of cases, 99.2% hospitalizations and 100% of all deaths in Northern Virginia since May 1 were among individuals who were not fully vaccinated, according to the VDH.
Meanwhile, the Prince William Health District reported no new deaths last week, and the county is on the cusp of reaching the 70% mark for adults vaccinated with at least one dose. Prince William County reported a one-dose adult vaccination rate of 69.8% on Sunday, July 11.
Prince William County reported 12 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, July 12, and is now reporting an average of about 13 a day, up about 46% from the average of seven daily cases last week. The average number of daily cases in the county is equal to what it was two weeks ago.
Statewide, Virginia reported 237 new cases a day as of Monday, up 30% from an average of 182 daily cases last week.
The Prince William Health District reported about 90 new cases locally over the past week, with new cases highest numbers among residents in their 20s, 30s and 40s – as well as those age 10 to 19. Only those age 12 and up are currently eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine.
As of Monday, July 12, the state had confirmed 88 COVID-19 infections due to the Delta variant, including seven in the Prince William Health District. But because the health department analyzes only a limited number of infection samples, the actual number of cases attributed to the delta variant is almost certainly higher.
The University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute is predicting a surge of COVID-19 cases across the state beginning in August and lasting into the fall, largely because of the Delta variant, which is two and a half times more contagious than the original COVID-19 virus, according to the institute’s latest report.
The rise in new cases could reach a rate of 6 per 100,000 residents, the report says. That would be about double the current rate of infection per capita statewide, which stood at 2.7 infections per 100,000 residents as of Monday, July 12, up from 2.1 last week.
The Prince William Health District reported seven new hospitalizations over the past week, down from 17 last week. Local residents hospitalized for COVID-19 over the past week included two residents in their 30s, two in their 50s and three age 70 or older, according to VDH data.
Rate of COVID-19 per capita
Rates of COVID-19 infections per capita throughout Northern Virginia remain in the “low” range but ticked up in nearly every Northern Virginia jurisdiction over the past week. They range from a low of 1 infection per 100,000 residents in Loudoun County to 4.9 infections per 100,000 residents in Fauquier County.
Prince William County’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests rose to 2.3% from 1.7% last week. That remains well below the 5% target, which is understood to be an indication that there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
Across Northern Virginia, the percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests ranged from .9% in Arlington County to 3.7% in the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier County.
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 11 of the county’s 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in nine and dropping in one.
Average daily cases rose in nine ZIP codes 20109, 20110, 20136, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22134 and 22191.
Average daily cases fell in only one ZIP Code: 22025.
Average daily cases remained the same in 10 ZIP Codes: 20111, 20112, 20119, 20137, 20143, 22026, 22125, 22172, 22191 and 22193.
There were zero new cases all week in three ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143 and 22125.
Monday, July 5: Prince William, Manassas Park fall short of July 4th vaccination goal, county reports 3 more deaths
Both Prince William County and Manassas Park fell short of President Joe Biden’s goal of having 70% of adults receive at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the Fourth of July holiday.
Meanwhile, the average number of daily cases reported locally continued to decline over the past week, but hospitalizations and deaths ticked up, with the county reporting three more deaths since June 29, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The deaths of three more Prince William County residents due to COVID-19 were reported over the past week, including those of a Latino man in his 50s and two white residents, a man and a woman, one in their 70s and one age 80 or older.
Statewide, new cases continued to rise over the past week, with the highly contagious Delta variant now making up about 13% of the infections in the state based on genomic testing done by the VDH.
Also as of Monday, July 5, the VDH was reporting an average of 182 new cases a day across the state, an increase of about 34% from the daily average of 136 one week ago.
Also as of July 5, the state had confirmed 67 COVID-19 infections due to the Delta variant, including five in the Prince William Health District. But because the health department analyzes only a limited number of infection samples, the actual number of cases attributed to the delta variant is almost certainly higher.
The University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute is predicting a surge of COVID-19 cases across the state beginning in August and lasting into the fall, largely because of the Delta variant, which is two and a half times more contagious than the original COVID-19 virus, according to the institute’s latest report.
The rise in new cases could reach a rate of 6 per 100,000 residents, the report says. That would be about three times the current rate of infection per capita statewide, which stood at 2.1 infections per 100,000 residents as of Monday, July 5.
Because vaccination rates are uneven across the state, however, not all parts of the state would affected equally, according to the UVA Biocomplexity Institute’s latest weekly report. The southwest and northwest regions could see more cases as a result of their relatively lower vaccination rates, the report said.
The Delta variant is concerning for a number of reasons. First, it spreads at a much higher rate than previous variants. Second, it shows some limited vaccine escape primarily among persons not fully vaccinated, the report said.
“Although those with only one dose of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine retain some risk for infection and hospitalization, that risk is higher with the Delta variant. Although sparse, early evidence suggests that it may also cause more severe illness,” the report notes.
As of Sunday, the City of Manassas and Prince William County remain third and fifth, respectively, among Northern Virginia jurisdictions in the percent of adults with at least one dose of the vaccine, according to VDH.
Loudoun County is leading the region with 76.9% of its adults vaccinated with at least one dose, followed by Fairfax County with 74.7%. The City of Manassas reported 72.2%, while Arlington County reported 69.5%.
Prince William County is reporting that 68.9% of its adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine – up from 67.9% last week. About 60.7% of Prince William adults are fully vaccinated (up from 59.6% last week) while 48.3% of the county’s total population is fully vaccinated (up from 47.1% last week), according to VDH data.
Locally, Prince William County is reporting about seven new cases a day, down from an average of 13 new cases a day reported just one week ago.
The Prince William Health District reported about 71 new cases last week, down from 85 the previous week.
Kids and teens ages 10 to 19 reported the most new cases with 25, followed by residents in their 50s, who reported 12 new cases. Residents in their 40s reported nine new cases, while those in their 20s reported eight, according to VDH data.
Kids ages 9 and under reported five new cases this week, down from seven last week. Kids under the age of 12 remain ineligible for the COVID-19 vaccine.
The Prince William Health District reported 17 new hospitalizations over the past week, about double the weekly number reported in recent weeks. Those hospitalized for COVID-19 included one resident in their 20s, three in their 40s, three in their 50s and five in their 60s, according to VDH data.
Two people in their 70s were hospitalized with COVID-19 as were three local residents age 80 or older.
Rate of COVID-19 per capita
Rates of COVID-19 infections per capita throughout Northern Virginia remain in the “very low” range and vary from 0 cases per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to 3.6 per 100,000 residents in Spotsylvania County.
Prince William County’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was unchanged at 1.7% this week. That remains well below the 5% target, which is understood to be an indication that there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
Across Northern Virginia, the percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests ranged from .5% in Arlington County to 4.4% in the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier County.
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 17 of the county’s 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in three.
Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20112, 20181 and 22134. Average daily cases fell in ZIP Codes 20109, 20111 and 22192.
Average daily cases remained the same in 20110, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20143, 20155, 20169, 20187, 22025, 22026, 22125, 22172, 22191 and 22193.
There were zero new cases all week in four ZIP Codes: 20109, 20143, 20169 and 22125.
Monday, June 28: Local COVID-19 cases decline; City of Manassas reaches 70% vaccination goal
New COVID-19 cases in Prince William County ticked down over the past week while rising in most other Northern Virginia jurisdictions. Meanwhile, the City of Manassas has met President Joe Biden’s goal of 70% of adults having had at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, but Prince William County and Manassas Park do not appear to be on track to reach that threshold by the July 4 deadline.
Prince William County reported 19 new cases on Sunday, June 27 and is reporting an average of 13 new cases a day, down from 15 one week ago. New COVID-19 cases reported daily in the county fell about 4.1% over the past seven days.
In neighboring jurisdictions, the rate of infection per capita remains in the “very low” range but rose in nearly every health district compared to the previous week, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
As of Sunday, the City of Manassas and Prince William County remain third and fifth, respectively, among Northern Virginia jurisdictions in the percent of adults with at least one dose of the vaccine, according to VDH.
Loudoun County is leading the region with 76% of its adults vaccinated with at least one dose, followed by Fairfax County with 73.7%. The City of Manassas reported 70.8%, while Arlington County reported 68.6%.
Prince William County is reporting that 67.9% of its adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. About 59.6% of Prince William adults are fully vaccinated, while 47.1% of the county’s total population is fully vaccinated, according to VDH data.
The state is reporting an average of 148 cases a day, up from 136 last week or an increase of about 9%.
The Prince William Health District reported about 85 new cases last week, down from 113 the previous week.
Residents in their 30s reported the most new cases this week with 20. They were followed by kids and teens ages 10 to 19, who reported 16 new cases, while residents in their 20s reported 15.
Kids ages 9 and under reported seven new cases this week, down from eight last week. Kids under the age of 12 remain ineligible for the COVID-19 vaccine, and children over the age of 2 are encouraged to wear masks in public settings if they are not yet vaccinated, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Local residents in their 50s reported 12 new cases, while those in their 40s reported nine and those in their 60s and 70s reported three in each age group. There were no new cases among residents age 80 and older.
Rate of COVID-19 per capita
Rates of COVID-19 infections per capita throughout Northern Virginia remain in the “very low” range and vary from 0.1 cases per 100,000 residents in Arlington County to 3.8 in Stafford County.
Prince William County’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests rose from 1.1% to 1.7% this past week. That remains well below the 5% target, which is understood to be an indication that there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
Across Northern Virginia, the percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests ranged from .6% in Arlington County to 2.6% in the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier County.
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 17 of the county’s 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in three.
Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20110, 20181 and 22134. Average daily cases fell in ZIP Codes 20112, 22172 and 22191.
Average daily cases remained the same in 20109, 20111, 20119, 20136, 20147, 20143, 20155, 20169, 20187, 22025, 22026, 22192 and 22193.
There were zero new cases all week in five ZIP Codes: 20137, 20143, 20181, 20187 and 22172.
Monday, June 21: Local COVID-19 cases hold steady, county reports 3 more deaths
COVID-19 cases in Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park held mostly steady this week with an average of 15 new cases reported daily.
But the county continues to have a higher rate of infection per capita than most of Northern Virginia and reported three more deaths in the last week: those of two residents of Prince William County and one of Manassas.
“With current trends, community immunity from vaccinations will not be achieved before fall,” the report says.
The latest three fatalities in the Prince William Health District were those of two women and one man. One of the victims was in their 50s, while one was in their 70s and one was age 80 or older.
As of Sunday, the City of Manassas and Prince William County were ranked third and fifth, respectively, among Northern Virginia jurisdictions in the percent of adults with at least one dose of the vaccine, according to VDH.
Loudoun County is leading the region with 75.4% of its adults vaccinated with at least one dose, followed by Fairfax County with 73%. The City of Manassas reported 69.8%, while Arlington County reported 68%.
Prince William County is reporting that 67.2% of its adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. About 58.6% of Prince William adults are fully vaccinated, while 46.1% of the county’s total population is fully vaccinated, according to VDH data.
The average number of new daily cases reported in the Prince William Health District held steady at 15 a day this week, unchanged from last week. The state is reporting an average of 136 cases per day, down from 143 last week.
In the local health district, a total of 113 new cases were reported over the past week, about the same as the 110 reported the previous week.
Daily cases continue to be highest among kids and teens ages 10 to 19 and among local residents in their 20s. There were 28 new cases reported among residents in their 20s and 24 among residents ages 10 to 19. Kids ages 9 and under reported eight new cases. Kids under the age of 12 remain ineligible for the COVID-19 vaccine and are encouraged to wear masks when in public settings, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Local residents in their 30s reported 18 new cases, while those in their 40s reported 13 and those in their 50s, 11.
“The Delta variant, which has ravaged India, is gaining traction in the U.S. and Virginia,” says the latest weekly report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute. “Unvaccinated individuals, including those with a previous COVID infection, remain at risk from this variant.”
According to CDC testing in May, about 71% of COVID-19 cases in the mid-Atlantic region are the result of the U.K. variant, or the B.1.1.7 variant, while the India variants account for about 5.7% of the region’s cases and the Brazilian variant, about 4.6%. The three New York variants account for about 11%.
There were five local hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the past week, up from three during the previous week. They included those of two residents in their 30s, one in their 40s, one in their 50s and one in their 70s, according to the VDH.
Across the state, there were 285 people hospitalized due to COVID-19, down from 345 last week. Of those, 69 were in intensive care units, down from 84 last week, while 38 were on ventilators, down from 62 last week, according the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.
Rate of COVID-19 per capita
Rates of COVID-19 infections per capita throughout Northern Virginia remain in the “very low” range and vary from 0 cases per 100,000 residents in Fairfax County to 3 in Prince William County, down from 3.2 last week. The City of Manassas reported three new cases last week.
Prince William County’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests declined from 1.7% to 1.1% this past week. That remains well below the 5% target, which is understood to be an indication that there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 15 of the county’s 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in three.
Five ZIP Codes reported zero new cases: 20119, 20143, 20169, 20187 and 22025.
Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20110, 20181 and 22134. Average daily cases fell in ZIP Codes 20112, 22172 and 22191.
Average daily cases remained the same in 20109, 20111, 20136, 20155, 22026, 22192 and 22193.
Sunday, June 13: Local COVID-19 cases remain low but rise slightly, county reports 4 more deaths
COVID-19 cases in Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park remain low but rose this past week to an average of 15 a day, up from about eight a day during the previous week. Also, the county reported four more COVID-19 deaths after adding none the previous week.
The rise in cases and newly reported deaths comes about one month after Virginia’s universal mask mandated was lifted May 15, and about two weeks after the Memorial Day weekend holiday, when all social distancing and capacity restrictions were lifted. Still, COVID-19 infections per capita locally and across the state remain at very low levels. Hospitalizations also continue to trend downward.
Meanwhile, the number of people vaccinated in the county and across the Northern Virginia region continues to creep upward. But the average number of vaccinations administered each day across Virginia is declining. About 28,700 shots, on average, were given each day during this past week, down from an average of more than 55,000 a day on May 21, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The latest local fatalities include those of three men and one woman. One was white and three were Latino. All were residents of Prince William County. The youngest was in their 40s. Of the other three victims, one was in their 50s; one was in their 70s; and one was age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
Prince William County reported 11 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, June 13, and is now reporting an average of 15 a day, up from an average of 8 the previous week and about the same number reported two weeks ago.
The state reported just 73 cases on Sunday and is now reporting an average of 143 cases a day, a decline of about 30% from the 203 average daily cases reported last week.
In the local health district, a total of 110 new cases were reported over the past week, up from 61 the previous week. They included 22 cases among kids ages 9 and under, all of whom are too young to be vaccinated, and 21 cases among kids and teens ages 10 to 19, according to VDH data. Kids must be 12 to be eligible for a vaccine.
Residents in their 20s reported 21 new cases, while residents in their 40s reported 19, according to VDH data.
There were just three local hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the past week, down from eight the previous week. They included those of one resident in their 20s, one in their 50s and one in their 70s.
Across the state, the number of people hospitalized as of Saturday, June 12, was 345, down from 443 last week. Of those, 84 were in intensive care units and 62 were on ventilators, according the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.
Rate of COVID-19 per capita
Rates of COVID-19 infections per capita throughout Northern Virginia remain in the “very low” range and vary from -.7 cases per 100,000 residents in the City of Manassas to 3.2 in Prince William County. The City of Manassas has not reported a single COVID-19 case since June 1.
Prince William County’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests declined from 2.8% to 1.7% this past week. That’s well below the 5% target, which is understood to be an indication that there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 11 of the county’s 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in eight.
Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20109, 20155, 20181, 22026, 22134, 22172, 22192 and 22193.
Average daily cases fell in ZIP Codes 20220 and 20119.
Average daily cases remained the same in 20112, 20136 and 22191. Cases remained at zero in the ZIP Codes: 20137, 20143, 20169, 20187 and 22025.
Northern Virginia vaccination rates
About 52.5% of Prince William County residents have had at least one dose of the vaccine, up from 51.2% last week, while the City of Manassas reported 53.1%, up from 51.7% over the past week, and Manassas Park reported 47.4%, up from 46.1%.
Statewide, 47.3% of Virginians are fully vaccinated, up from 44.9% last week, while 56.8% have had at least one dose, up from 55.2%. Among Virginia adults, 69% have had at least one dose of the vaccine, up from 67.8% last week, while 58.6% are fully vaccinated, up from 56.9% last week.